Substantial tax and welfare powers will not be devolved to the Scottish Parliament if Scotland votes ‘NO’

I have updated this blog again after being reminded of what David Cameron has said on this issue and also to make greater reference to the welfare powers part of this debate.  Two quotes from an article in the Scotsman sum up the position nicely:

“Scots have been warned a substantial increase in financial powers for Holyrood is not an option if Scotland wants to remain in the United Kingdom.”

“The sources said a unified tax and benefits system across the UK, was at the “heart” of a single country, and could not be devolved to Scotland.”

Has anything changed since these comments were made?  It appears not.  Neither the Conservative, or Labour or the Liberal Democrat parties are proposing anything that comes even close to what is proposed by ‘devo plus’ let alone ‘devo max’.

Add to this the recent comments from Kenneth Calman, chair of the Calman Commission, and it is clear nothing has changed.  Calman is proposing yet another UK Commission of Scotland votes ‘NO’.  More on this can be found here and here.  The implications for those still arguing for “devo  plus” or “devo max” are obvious.

Now to the welfare powers debate.  Both Michael Moore and Ruth Davidson have suggested that some relatively minor welfare powers might be devolved to the Scottish Parliament if Scotland votes ‘NO’.  Both have ruled out devolving substantial welfare powers.

This is in stark contrast to the position taken by the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations.  The SCVO have stated that Scotland needs a separate welfare system from the rest of the UK regardless of the result of next year’s referendum.  This is an extremely important contribution given recent comments from those on the ‘NO’ side.  More on this can found here.

Tax Powers

Although the Scottish Conservatives now appear to be moving towards arguing for the devolving of further tax powers there is as as yet no firm proposal from them.

Listed below are the taxes, duties and charges that Westminster has so far refused to pass control to the Scottish Parliament.

In bold are the additional powers the Liberal Democrats are putting forward for devolving.  This information is from its “Home Rule Commission” published in October 2012.

In red are the additional powers the Scottish Labour party might argue for devolving.  I say “might” as its report is an “interim” report only.

The figures are mostly from the “Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2011-12” (GERS).  The figures are included to give an idea as to the level of revenue produced by a particular tax and are a number of millions of pounds.

  1. Full control over income tax including the underlying law dealing with reliefs etc (some additional powers but not complete control)  (similar proposal from Labour) 10,790
  2. National insurance contributions  8,393
  3. Corporation tax (assignation of revenue only)  2,976
  4. North Sea revenue  10,573
  5. Fuel duties  2,296
  6. Capital gains tax (partial control only) (similar proposal from Labour) 246
  7. Inheritance tax (to be devolved)  (possibly)  164
  8. Other stamp duties – stamp duty and SDRT on shares (estimated)  276
  9. Tobacco duties  1,129
  10. Alcohol duties  (includes spirit, wine, beer and cider duties)  981
  11. Betting and gaming duties  115
  12. Air passenger duty (even though included in Calman) (not clear if to be completely devolved)  (similar proposal from Labour)  213
  13. Insurance premium tax  251
  14. Climate change levy  64
  15. Aggregates levy (even though included in Calman) (not clear if to be completely devolved) (similar proposal from Labour)  52
  16. Vehicle excise duty  (possibly)  475
  17. Bank levy (estimate as no separate Scottish figure)  180
  18. Licence fee receipts  325
  19. Crown Estate revenue  (not clear if to be completely devolved) (if Scottish Parliament accepts UK Government terms)  10
  20. VAT cannot be devolved but VAT revenue could be assigned  9,554

 

Taxes already devolved to be devolved under Scotland Act 2012

  1. Income tax (still only partial control over tax bands and will cost Scottish Parliament millions of pounds a year to administer even if not used)  (estimated partial control over)  5,395
  2. Council tax  1,987
  3. Business rates  1,933
  4. Stamp duty land tax (Scottish Parliament control by April 2015)  330
  5. Landfill tax (Scottish Parliament control by April 2015)  97

 

The Scotland Act 2012 also does not resolve the imbalance between the amount the Scottish Parliament is responsible for spending and which it raises.  The Scotland Act 2012 only takes us to about a third.

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